By Mukadam Asiwaju Asiru Idris
In accordance with the INEC guidelines, the rerun for the Kogi West Senatorial election will hold within the next two weeks. Therefore, it will hold latest by 30th November,2019.
The following variables will guide you in our explanation.
(a)The number of LGAs affected are 7
(b)No of RAs (Wards) are 20.
(c)There are 53 polling units affected.
(d)No of registered voters is 48,101
(e)No of PVC collected is 30,730
(f)Kogi West total votes as at 16/11/19 is 105,504
(g)The PVC collected in Kogi West is 384,744
(h)The percentage voters turnout (based on Nov 16 election) is 27.42%
(i)APC winning ratio
in Kogi West is 57.30%
(j)PDP winning ratio
in Kogi West is 42.70%.
(k)Sen Smart Adeyemi
margin of win based on the result released so far is 20,570 _(Source: INEC)_
The percentage turn out in Kogi West based on the 16th Nov, 2019 election is:
%Turn out= Turnout/PVC collected
= 105,504/384,744
=27.42%
Winning ratio: Votes scored/Total votes casted
For APC= 60,442/105,504 *100
= 57.3%
And for PDP= 45,062/105,504 * 100
= 42.7%
The expected turnout at 27.42% is 8,426
APC (57.3%)= 4,828
PDP(42.7% )= 3,598
(At 27.42%, which is the voters turnout on the 16th Nov. 2019: That is 27.42% of 30,730 PVC collected equals 8,426)
*At 27.42% turnout, Sen Smart Adeyemi is a winner.*
Again, at 50% the expected turnout is 15,365
APC(57.3%)=8,804
PDP(42.7%)=6,561
*At 50% turnout, Sen Smart Adeyemi is a winner.*
At 60% turnout which is unlikely ……18,438
APC(57.3%)=10,565
PDP(42.7%)=7,873
*At 60% turnout, Sen Smart Adeyemi is a winner.*
At 70% turnout which is very unlikely expected turnout is 21,511
APC(57.3%)= 12,326
PDP(42.7%)= 9,185
*At 70% turnout, Sen Smart Adeyemi is a big winner.*
At the 100% turnout, which is a taboo in the West, the expected turnout is 30,730
APC(57.3%)=17,608
PDP(42.7%)=13,122.
*At a scenario of 100% turnout in Kogi West , Senator Smart Adeyemi remain the winner.*
In conclusion, the above scenario is to guide Distinguished Senator Smart Adeyemi for proper planning and budgeting. And for us the APC members to get set for his inauguration in early week of December 2019 into the Red Chamber.
To Sen Dino Melaye don’t waste resources on this rerun. The fund can be invested in the completion of the oil and gas business in your village, or setting up of theatre village or opening of standard car mart in Lokoja.
Mukadam Asiwaju Asiru Idris
