By Yekini Jimoh
As political alignments begin to shape ahead of the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial primaries in Kogi West, emerging indicators suggest that Senator Sunday Karimi may again hold a decisive advantage over rivals, including former Senator Smart Adeyemi.
While intra-party contests are often fluid, several political, structural, and historical factors tilt the balance in Karimi’s favour.
Incumbency Advantage and Control of Political Structures
Karimi currently represents Kogi West in the Senate, having assumed office in 2023 after defeating Adeyemi in the APC primary and subsequently winning the general election.
Incumbency in Nigerian politics often comes with significant leverage access to party leadership, influence over grassroots mobilization, and visibility through constituency projects. These advantages position Karimi as a strong contender within the APC framework, especially where delegate-based primaries are involved.
Proven Ability to Defeat Adeyemi in APC Contest
Karimi’s prior victory over Adeyemi in the 2023 APC primary is a critical precedent. He secured a commanding margin, polling 288 votes against Adeyemi’s 43.
This outcome demonstrated not only his acceptability among party delegates but also his ability to overcome an established political figure like Adeyemi, who had previously served multiple terms in the Senate.
Such a precedent reinforces perceptions within the party that Karimi remains the more electable option.
Backing from Key Political Power Blocs
Karimi’s emergence in 2023 was widely linked to strong backing from influential political actors within Kogi APC, particularly structures aligned with former Governor Yahaya Bello.
In APC politics, alignment with dominant state-level power blocs often determines primary outcomes. If such alliances remain intact, they could again provide Karimi with a strategic edge over opponents.
Record of Constituency Projects and Legislative Activity
Supporters of Karimi point to his record in office, including infrastructure and social intervention projects such as borehole installations and security initiatives.
Additionally, APC stakeholders’ groups have publicly defended his performance, citing “positive impact” and grassroots support despite internal criticisms.
This narrative of performance may resonate with delegates who prioritize continuity and visible development.
Fragmentation Among Opponents
While Adeyemi remains a significant political figure, the opposition within the APC is not unified. Multiple aspirants and factions within Kogi West APC could split votes, indirectly benefiting Karimi.
Even criticisms against him such as dissent from some party leaders also reveal internal divisions that may prevent a cohesive anti-Karimi front.
In delegate-based systems, divided opposition often translates to victory for a candidate with a solid core base.
Changing Political Dynamics in Kogi West
Kogi West has historically been politically unpredictable, with shifting loyalties and intense rivalries.
However, recent electoral trends suggest a gradual transition from legacy politicians to newer power alignments. Karimi’s victory over Adeyemi in 2023 symbolized this shift, and sustaining that momentum could prove decisive in another primary contest.
Conclusion
While challenges remain including internal party disagreements and criticism from some APC stakeholders Senator Sunday Karimi enters the APC primary race with tangible advantages: incumbency, proven electoral strength, influential backing, and a consolidated delegate base.
Unless a unified opposition emerges or party dynamics shift significantly, these factors place him in a strong position to defeat Smart Adeyemi and other contenders in the forthcoming APC primary in Kogi West.
